Highest temperature in NYC on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's peak temperature on 18 August 2026 will be measured at LaGuardia Airport and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement occurring at midday UTC. The current 1% implied probability reflects expectations for an unusually cool August day in a location where summer highs typically range between 28–30°C (82–86°F). August temperatures in New York have historically clustered in the upper 20s Celsius, with readings above 32°C (90°F) occurring roughly one year in three during the month.

Historical August data from LaGuardia shows that extreme heat—temperatures exceeding 35°C (95°F)—arrives infrequently but remains plausible given climate patterns. The 2024 summer saw multiple days above 32°C across the northeastern United States, whilst the 2023 season produced several readings near 34°C (93°F) in early August. Traders should note that Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, rather than the Day High & Low summary, governs resolution; discrepancies between these sources have occasionally created settlement disputes on weather markets.

The National Weather Service forecast for mid-August 2026 remains unavailable until late July, meaning traders currently operate without seasonal guidance. Deposit friction and withdrawal rails—including Klarna instalment options, SEPA transfers, and USDC settlement—will determine book depth as the market approaches its August settlement window. Early liquidity typically concentrates around major weather announcements; traders depositing via Klarna or SEPA should anticipate standard processing times before positioning ahead of the forecast release.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on August 18? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?

Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.

What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?

UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.

How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?

Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).