Highest temperature in Munich on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Munich Airport on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical averages for Munich in July show daily highs typically rising from 72°F to 75°F, rarely dipping below 61°F or exceeding 87°F, which translates to roughly 16°C to 31°C[1]. Recent ensemble forecasts for the preceding day, 8 July, placed Munich’s maximum near 25–27°C, mirroring the tight probability splits seen in current markets for similar dates[3]. With the crowd-implied probability for a "YES" outcome at 0%, traders are effectively betting that the temperature will fall outside the specific range being offered, despite the historical likelihood of temperatures landing squarely within the 25–27°C band observed in comparable forecasts[2].

Traders should monitor upcoming weather model updates from European and global providers, as shifts in these forecasts often drive immediate book depth changes. A recent report from France24 noted Germany recorded its highest-ever temperature of 41.3°C in late June 2026, suggesting the region is experiencing heightened thermal volatility that could influence July outcomes[5]. The settlement relies exclusively on Wunderground data for the Munich Airport Station, meaning any discrepancies in that source’s reporting could alter resolution. Funding flows into this market, particularly deposits via Klarna and SEPA rails, correlate with the depth of the betting book; as on-ramp friction decreases, more capital enters, sharpening the probability lines around the 25°C and 26°C frontrunners currently dominating the market[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Munich on July 9? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.