Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Mexico City's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Benito Juárez International Airport, the official weather station used for settlement. The city sits at 2,250 metres elevation in a highland basin, which moderates extremes compared to lower-altitude Mexican regions. May marks the tail end of the dry season before the onset of summer monsoon rains, typically producing warm but not extreme conditions in the capital.

Historical May data from the airport shows highest temperatures clustering between 28–32°C, with occasional spikes to 33–34°C during particularly dry years. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature band will resolve or awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts as May 2026 approaches. Comparable May 25th readings from prior years provide the baseline: 2023 recorded 29.4°C, whilst 2022 saw 31.1°C. These precedents anchor expectations within a narrow range, making outlier outcomes—either unusually cool or hot—less likely to attract significant liquidity without fresh atmospheric data.

Traders should monitor Mexico's National Meteorological Service (SMN) seasonal outlooks released in April 2026, which forecast temperature anomalies relative to the 30-year normal. El Niño or La Niña conditions active during spring could shift May temperatures by 1–2°C. Deposit friction via Klarna or SEPA transfers may influence market depth; traders holding USDC can settle positions faster, whilst those funding via traditional rails face longer clearing windows that could affect position management near the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.