Highest temperature in Manila on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila will record its peak daily temperature at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 11 July 2026, with settlement based on the highest Celsius reading from Wunderground. Historical July data shows daytime highs typically reach 31°C, though recent forecasts for July 2026 suggest a range of 28°C to 30°C, with PAGASA predicting a maximum of 30°C for the specific date [3][5]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome exceeding the market’s implied threshold appears inconsistent with these baselines, as the leading market outcome is actually 29°C at 41%, followed by 28°C at 30%, indicating traders expect temperatures well within the 28–30°C band rather than extreme outliers [1].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from PAGASA and Wunderground’s hourly archives, as cloud cover and light rain—reported for 11 July 2026—can suppress peak temperatures by 1–2°C [4][5]. The Manila Times’ 5 P.M. weather bulletin on 10 July will offer the first concrete forecast for the settlement day, potentially shifting liquidity if it confirms or contradicts the 30°C PAGASA outlook [8]. Funding flows into this market remain tied to on-ramp friction: Klarna and SEPA deposits are currently the dominant rails, with USDC withdrawals gaining traction as traders seek faster settlement access, directly influencing book depth when temperature forecasts tighten [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Manila on July 11? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.