Highest temperature in Manila on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila’s highest temperature on 1 July 2026 will be measured at Ninoy Aquino International Airport, with Wunderground as the official resolution source. Historical data shows daytime highs in Manila during July typically reach 31°C, though the wet season from June to October brings frequent rainfall and slightly lower averages of 26–31°C [1][2]. The driest, hottest months are March and April, when temperatures often climb to 32°C, whereas July remains cooler due to heavy showers [2]. Past records from PAGASA indicate peaks of 34°C in nearby cities like Laoag and Catbalogan, but Manila itself rarely exceeds 33°C even in peak heat [6]. Given this pattern, a 0% YES probability for extreme heat aligns with seasonal norms.

Traders should monitor PAGASA’s daily forecasts and Wunderground’s real-time updates for 1 July, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind could alter peak temperatures [6][7]. Recent PAGASA data from late June recorded a high of 34°C in Ilocos Norte, suggesting regional variability, but Manila’s coastal position usually moderates extremes [6]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but tropical disturbances common in July could suppress temperatures further. The market’s traction reflects funding flows tied to payment rails like Klarna and SEPA, where deposit friction and withdrawal fees influence book depth. As on-ramp costs rise, liquidity may thin, making price movements more sensitive to minor forecast updates.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Manila on July 1? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).