Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak daily temperature recorded at Los Angeles International Airport on 9 July 2026, a date historically prone to significant heat spikes in the interior valleys. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the highest temperature falling below specific thresholds, suggesting traders expect conditions to remain well above cooler baselines. Historical data for July in Los Angeles shows average highs ranging from 79°F to 90°F, with overnight lows between 64°F and 71°F, while recent forecasts for the county indicate interior temperatures reaching 90°F to 105°F and inland coastal plains hitting 80°F to 90°F[1][3]. Comparable markets on other platforms have settled on a daily high of 76°F to 77°F as the most likely outcome, carrying a 43% probability weight, which frames the current 0% sentiment as a potential mispricing if the heat advisory peaks as predicted[5].

Traders should monitor the official heat advisory schedules issued by local meteorological services, as the timing of peak temperatures often correlates with funding flows into prediction book depth. Recent news from the Los Angeles Times confirms that mercury levels are expected to surge across the region, with the advisory period likely extending through mid-July, creating a direct catalyst for temperature volatility[3]. The market’s traction is intrinsically linked to payment friction; depositors using Klarna or SEPA rails may face withdrawal delays that temporarily suppress liquidity, while USDC on-ramps offer faster settlement but higher network fees. As funding flows accelerate through these rails, the book depth will expand, potentially correcting the 0% probability if the heat advisory intensifies beyond current consensus models.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 9? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.