Highest temperature in London on June 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the peak temperature recorded at London City Airport on 24 June 2026, with the market currently pricing a 76% chance that the heat will not exceed 35°C. This probability aligns with the frontrunner outcome of "35°C or below" holding 70% of the book, while the next closest range sits at 24% [1]. Historical context from the recent June 6 market shows a 100% certainty for a 17°C maximum under unsettled post-May conditions, contrasting sharply with the current heatwave narrative [2]. Meanwhile, yesterday’s Hampstead report recorded a maximum of 33.9°C, suggesting the threshold is plausible but not guaranteed as temperatures climb toward the airport’s 37°C forecast [7][8].

Traders should monitor the Met Office’s hourly updates for Wednesday, which currently predict a 37°C high, as this directly challenges the 35°C ceiling implied by the crowd [7]. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground’s official daily high for EGLC, making real-time data feeds the critical dependency for resolution [1]. Recent news highlights London experiencing record temperatures amid a broader heatwave, a catalyst that could drive funding flows and deepen the book depth for higher temperature ranges [9]. As deposit fees and withdrawal rails like Klarna and SEPA facilitate larger on-ramps, the market’s traction will likely correlate with these payment flows, reinforcing the liquidity needed to price such extreme weather deviations accurately.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.