Highest temperature in London on June 16?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 16 June 2026, London City Airport's weather station will record a daily high temperature. The settlement hinges on which range that figure falls into, with data pulled from Wunderground's historical archive for that specific location and date. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently see no conviction in any single temperature band, or the market lacks sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the available brackets.

London's June climate typically produces highs between 20–23°C, though the city has recorded peaks above 25°C during early-summer heat waves. The 2022 heatwave saw June temperatures exceed 30°C in parts of the UK, whilst more typical years see modest variability around the 21°C mean. Historical volatility in June outcomes—ranging from cool, wet spells to unexpected warm fronts—explains why prediction markets on specific daily highs remain difficult to price without real-time meteorological input closer to the settlement date.

Weather forecasts beyond two weeks carry substantial uncertainty, making June 2026 predictions premature for most traders. The Met Office and BBC Weather will issue increasingly reliable 10-day forecasts in early June, which typically drive market activity and liquidity shifts. Traders depositing via Klarna or SEPA rails should expect book depth to improve materially once May forecasts clarify atmospheric patterns; early positioning now carries execution friction against thin order books, though withdrawal mechanisms remain available throughout the settlement window.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.