Highest temperature in London on June 13?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 13 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement hinges on data from Wunderground's historical weather archive for that specific station, with resolution occurring after the close of the settlement window at 12:00 UTC. This is a straightforward weather outcome market with no discretionary elements—the reading is either recorded or it isn't.

London's June temperatures typically cluster between 18°C and 24°C, though extremes have reached into the high 20s during warm spells. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as a placeholder pending liquidity. Historical June data from City Airport shows variability driven by Atlantic weather systems and occasional continental air masses; comparable markets on UK temperature outcomes have attracted meaningful volume only once deposit friction eases and traders gain confidence in withdrawal rails. Klarna's SEPA and card-based settlement options reduce friction for UK-based participants, though initial book depth often remains thin until multiple funding pathways are proven live.

The Met Office publishes extended forecasts roughly ten days ahead; traders should monitor their June outlook around early June for any signals of unusual warmth or cool patterns. Seasonal climate indices—the North Atlantic Oscillation and soil moisture anomalies—influence June weather regimes but operate on timescales too coarse to predict a single day. Market traction will likely correlate with deposit availability and withdrawal confirmation times; early traders willing to lock capital will establish the initial price discovery, with subsequent volume dependent on how quickly Klarna settlement cycles complete.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.