Highest temperature in London on June 12?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

London's highest temperature on 12 June 2026 will be recorded at City Airport Station and settled against Wunderground historical data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full diurnal cycle. Current crowd pricing at 0% suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or sparse liquidity across the full distribution—a common pattern in weather markets where deposit friction and withdrawal rails constrain book depth during off-season months.

Historical June temperatures at London City Airport cluster between 18°C and 24°C, with occasional peaks above 25°C during high-pressure systems. The 2022 heatwave pushed readings to 32°C in early July, but June typically remains cooler. Comparable markets on this venue have shown that early-season weather contracts attract traders only after major payment on-ramps activate; Klarna's SEPA rail and USDC settlement options have historically driven traction in European weather books once deposit minimums align with seasonal interest.

The Met Office 10-day forecast and European model consensus will crystallise around early June, with Atlantic low-pressure systems and jet-stream positioning as primary catalysts. Traders should monitor the North Atlantic Oscillation index and any sudden model shifts toward continental high pressure, which would shift probability mass rightward. Withdrawal liquidity on SEPA transfers typically tightens ahead of settlement windows, so position sizing should account for potential delays in converting winnings back to bank accounts.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.