Highest temperature in London on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 11 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement relies on historical data from Weather Underground's archive for that specific station, which sits in East London and typically records slightly warmer readings than central London due to its riverside location and lower urban density nearby. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the outcome distribution or have not yet engaged with this particular market.

London's June temperatures have historically ranged between 18°C and 28°C, with the long-term average high around 21–22°C. The Met Office's 30-year climate normals show June as a transitional month where Atlantic weather systems compete with continental warmth; extremes above 30°C occur roughly once per decade, whilst readings below 15°C are rare. Recent years including 2022 and 2023 saw June highs in the mid-to-high 20s, providing a useful baseline for assessing probability distributions across the available ranges.

Traders should monitor the European weather pattern forecast issued by the UK Met Office in early June, particularly the North Atlantic Oscillation phase and any high-pressure systems tracking towards the British Isles. Deposit friction via Klarna or SEPA transfers may influence market depth; traders accessing the book through faster on-ramps typically see tighter spreads as liquidity pools deepen. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 11 June, meaning real-time temperature data from the airport station becomes the definitive source once the day concludes.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on June 11? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Klarna UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.