Highest temperature in London on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

London’s highest temperature is taken from the London City Airport Station on 31 July, with the settlement based on the day’s single maximum rather than the afternoon readout alone. A 0% YES crowd price implies traders see the listed band as very unlikely, which can happen when the market has already drifted after fresh weather updates or when most activity has moved into adjacent temperature ranges instead of the current bin.

July in London can still produce sharp late-month spikes: Heathrow reached 37.8°C on 31 July 2020, while St James’s Park hit 31.9°C on another recent high-temperature day, and both sit well above the sort of mid-20s outcome that would leave the current zero-price band unresolved. London’s record heat also shows how quickly central and west London can diverge on hot days, so a station-specific market around City Airport is best read against local forecast maxima rather than London-wide averages.[2][3][4][11]

For traders, the main catalysts are the short-term forecast revisions, any heat alerts, and the precise timing of the day’s peak before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off. Funding frictions matter here too: if deposits clear instantly through card or Klarna, or if SEPA and USDC balances are already parked on-platform, order books tend to thicken faster when late weather model runs shift the expected top temperature; slower rails can leave pricing stickier until near expiry. Recent UK coverage has repeatedly shown London moving from low-30s to mid-30s Celsius in summer hot spells, so a small forecast change can still move the relevant temperature bucket materially.[10][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in London on July 31? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).