Highest temperature in London on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

London’s 24 July high at London City Airport will be determined by how warm the city gets before midday, with the market settling on the day’s maximum recorded temperature rather than the afternoon feel in central London. July is normally a mild-to-warm month in the capital, with one weather guide putting typical daytime highs around 23°C and cooler nights near 14°C, which means the most likely outcomes usually sit well below heatwave levels unless an unusually strong plume develops.[2]

The current 0% yes-implied probability looks like a reflection of thin liquidity more than a literal forecast of zero chance. Markets tied to weather extremes often stay quiet until a clear synoptic setup appears, and London’s recent 2026 heat has already been described as a fading event rather than a persistent regime, with one report noting that the late-June heatwave had ended and Met Office warnings were lifted.[1] If this book is being funded through off-ramp-constrained flows, friction matters: deposits that settle cleanly via SEPA or card rails, plus easier withdrawals through Klarna-linked or USDC pathways, generally support tighter books earlier, while manual banking delays tend to suppress participation and leave probabilities sticky.

Traders should watch for Met Office updates, model runs, and any fresh temperature guidance for south-east England, because even a modest change in cloud cover or wind direction can move the London City Airport maximum by several degrees. The key catalyst is whether forecasts converge on an onshore, cooler profile or a brief warm spike before noon; if the market remains at 0% through the morning despite rising forecast highs, that would more likely indicate weak order flow than conviction about the weather itself.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in London on July 24? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).