Highest temperature in London on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

London City Airport’s peak temperature on 23 July will be set by how warm the afternoon gets before the daily maximum is logged on Wunderground. London’s July climate is normally mild by summer standards, with average highs around 23°C, but heatwaves can still push readings into the high 20s or above, so the market is really a question of whether the day behaves like an average July session or a brief spike. [1][5]

The current 0% YES price is only useful if it reflects the exact temperature band rather than a view on “hot” versus “not hot”. Comparable London weather markets often cluster around the mid-to-high 20s when seasonal warmth is present, which is consistent with recent market pricing elsewhere putting 26°C and 27°C as the leading outcomes in a similar London temperature contract. [2] That matters for book depth because weather contracts tend to draw liquidity when the funding route is easy: low-friction deposits, cheap top-ups, and quick withdrawals usually support tighter spreads more than the forecast itself.

For traders, the main catalysts are the morning model updates and any heat or thunderstorm shifts in the UK forecast that alter the expected daily maximum before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Recent London coverage has highlighted how quickly late-July temperatures can swing as frontal systems or thunderstorms break warm spells, with peak readings in the high 20s giving way to cooler conditions once the pattern turns. [3] On a payments-first venue, the practical watchpoint is whether fresh inflows arrive through rails such as Klarna, SEPA, or USDC quickly enough to add depth if forecasts move sharply during the day.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in London on July 23? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).