Highest temperature in London on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement hinges on data from Wunderground's historical weather archive for that specific station, measured in Celsius. This market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either early-stage liquidity or a data-loading lag typical of forward-dated weather contracts before active trading begins.

London's July temperatures have historically clustered between 20–26°C, with occasional peaks above 28°C during heat waves. The summer of 2022 saw the UK's record high of 40.3°C, though London City Airport itself recorded 37.8°C that day. Comparable July conditions in 2019 and 2021 produced highs in the 24–27°C range. These precedents matter because they anchor what traders should expect: a baseline summer day lands in the low-to-mid 20s, whilst sustained heat-dome conditions push toward the upper 20s or low 30s. The 0% crowd reading likely reflects the market's nascent state rather than genuine certainty about the outcome.

Traders should monitor the Met Office's seasonal outlook for summer 2026 and any Atlantic weather pattern shifts signalled in spring forecasts. Deposit flows into prediction markets typically accelerate 4–6 weeks before settlement as traders gain conviction; SEPA transfers and Klarna's instalment rails have historically driven book depth in weather contracts, particularly when payouts span multiple temperature bands. Early positioning in low-probability ranges often rewards patient capital once liquidity pools deepen.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in London on July 21? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.