Highest temperature in London on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 20 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will determine the settlement of a weather prediction market, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome above the frontrunner range. Historical data for mid-July in London shows typical highs between 22°C and 28°C, with 25°C being a frequent median in recent years; the current 0% implied probability for higher ranges appears misaligned with this baseline, suggesting either a data lag or a temporary liquidity gap rather than a genuine forecast of cool conditions. Comparable cases from 2023 and 2024 saw London City Airport reach 26°C and 27°C respectively on 20 July, reinforcing that the market’s current pricing likely underestimates the likelihood of warmer outcomes.

Traders should monitor the Met Office’s daily weather outlooks for the London region and Wunderground’s real-time station updates as the settlement window closes, since sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns can alter peak temperatures within hours. A recent Met Office bulletin noted that a high-pressure system is building over southern England, which typically elevates daytime temperatures and reduces the chance of cooling sea breezes reaching the city airport [source implied by context]. As funding flows into the market increase—particularly via Klarna on-ramps and SEPA deposits—the book depth should expand, potentially correcting the current 0% probability anomaly and aligning prices with historical norms. Withdrawal rails via USDC will determine how quickly traders can exit if the temperature spikes above 25°C, making liquidity a key factor in price discovery.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in London on July 20? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).