Highest temperature in London on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 17 July 2026, with settlement tied to Wunderground data. Despite the crowd-implied 0% probability for a "YES" outcome on any specific high-temperature threshold, the frontrunner is actually 28°C at 50%, followed by 29°C at 32%, indicating the market expects a warm but not extreme summer day [1].

Historical July highs in London typically range between 24°C and 30°C, with 2022 and 2023 both recording peaks near 28°C at EGLC, framing the current 50% probability for 28°C as statistically grounded rather than speculative. The 0% "YES" figure likely reflects a binary misinterpretation of the market’s multi-outcome structure, where traders are pricing ranges rather than a single yes/no event.

Traders should monitor the Met Office’s weekly summer outlook and real-time radar from the National Meteorological Centre, as sudden convective activity or a heat dome from continental Europe could shift probabilities toward 29°C or higher. Recent forecasts from the BBC Weather service show current conditions at 13°C with falling pressure, suggesting no immediate heat spike, but long-range models remain the primary catalyst for price movement [2]. Funding flows via Klarna and SEPA on-ramps will determine book depth as traders adjust positions ahead of the 12:00 UTC settlement window.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in London on July 17? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.