Highest temperature in London on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

London City Airport is recording 13°C this afternoon, a figure that aligns with the market’s current 0% probability for any extreme heat outcome on 16 July 2026. Historical data for mid-July at this station typically shows highs between 18°C and 24°C, with only rare excursions above 30°C during intense heatwaves like those in 2018 or 2022. The crowd’s near-zero pricing suggests traders view a record-breaking spike as statistically implausible given current atmospheric conditions and seasonal norms.

Key catalysts include the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ seven-day outlook, which will refine temperature projections as the settlement window closes. Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, for any sudden shifts in the hourly maximum. A recent BBC Weather report confirms southerly winds and falling pressure, conditions that rarely trigger extreme heat in London without a sustained high-pressure ridge from the south-east [2]. Any deviation from this pattern would be the primary trigger for a probability re-rate.

The market’s book depth remains tied to funding flows enabled by Klarna and SEPA on-ramps, which lower deposit friction for retail participants. As withdrawal rails like USDC become more integrated, liquidity is expected to deepen, allowing faster price adjustments to incoming weather data. This infrastructure directly supports the market’s ability to absorb new information without slippage, ensuring the 0% YES probability reflects genuine consensus rather than liquidity gaps.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in London on July 16? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).