Highest temperature in London on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

London City Airport is set to record its peak temperature for 15 July 2026, a single data point that will determine the settlement of this weather market. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the YES outcome suggests traders expect the day’s maximum heat to fall outside the specific range defined in the contract terms. With current readings at the airport showing 28°C, the atmosphere is already warm, yet the final hourly peak remains the sole metric for resolution via Wunderground’s historical daily data for EGLC.

Historical July highs at London City Airport typically cluster between 25°C and 32°C, with extreme heatwaves occasionally pushing past 35°C. The 0% probability implies the market believes the specific range offered is either implausibly low or unattainably high for this date, mirroring past years where mid-July peaks consistently landed in the mid-20s. Traders should note that settlement relies entirely on the single highest recorded degree for the day, not the average, making the final afternoon hour critical for the outcome.

Key catalysts include the official release of the daily maximum on Wunderground after the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. While no specific weather announcements are scheduled, traders monitoring funding flows should watch for shifts in deposit volume via Klarna or SEPA, as increased on-ramp friction often correlates with reduced book depth. Recent volatility in UK summer forecasts suggests that sudden cloud cover or rain could cap the temperature, directly impacting the final resolution value cited by the data provider.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in London on July 15? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.