Highest temperature in London on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market bets on whether London City Airport will record a temperature exceeding a specific high threshold on 13 July 2026, with the crowd currently assigning only a 3% chance to the event occurring. Historical data shows July is London’s hottest month, averaging highs near 22°C, while the city’s absolute record reached 40.2°C in 2022, though such extremes are rare and typically tied to specific heatwave conditions [1][5]. Current forecasts for today predict a maximum of 27°C at London City Airport, with sunny conditions and moderate southerly winds, suggesting the atmosphere is warm but not approaching the levels required to trigger a high-temperature resolution [3][6].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground and Met Office hourly bulletins, as sudden shifts in wind direction or cloud cover could alter the peak temperature before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes [3]. The low probability reflects both the statistical likelihood of a moderate summer day and the absence of any announced heatwave alerts for the region; however, any unexpected meteorological shift could rapidly reprice the market. Funding flows into this book remain thin, consistent with the low implied probability, and liquidity is likely to deepen only if a credible forecast emerges predicting temperatures above 30°C.

For users depositing via Klarna or withdrawing through SEPA and USDC rails, the frictionless on-ramp experience supports faster position adjustments as new weather data arrives. The book depth remains constrained by the event’s narrow window and low perceived risk, meaning large trades could significantly impact pricing if the forecast changes. Recent activity on adjacent London temperature markets, such as the July 14 event where 30°C holds a 47% probability, indicates that traders are pricing in a gradual warming trend across mid-July, though today’s conditions remain below that threshold [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in London on July 13? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).