Highest temperature in London on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 10 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data confirms July is London’s hottest month, with an average high of 72°F (22°C) at this airport, though extreme heatwaves have pushed temperatures significantly higher in recent years[1]. During the intense July 2022 heatwave, several UK airports recorded 40°C for the first time, setting a benchmark for what traders consider a plausible upper limit[7]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for the highest range suggests the market views such extremes as highly unlikely for this specific date, despite the seasonal peak.

Traders should monitor the Met Office’s seven-day forecast and Wunderground’s daily history updates as primary catalysts for price movement, particularly any announcements regarding incoming southerly winds or high-pressure systems[2][6]. Recent forecasts for 10 July indicate partly sunny conditions with a high of 86°F (30°C), which falls well below the 40°C threshold but remains a critical dependency for book depth[3]. The market’s traction is directly tied to funding flows from payment rails like Klarna and SEPA; as deposit fees and withdrawal friction decrease, liquidity increases, allowing traders to better price these weather dependencies. Any sudden shift in the forecast towards 35°C+ would likely trigger a rapid re-evaluation of the current probability, driven by the influx of capital from low-friction on-ramps.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in London on July 10? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.