Highest temperature in London on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

London City Airport's weather station will record the highest temperature on 16 August 2026, with settlement determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The market currently shows 0% implied probability, reflecting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity establishing a baseline book. Resolution hinges on the precise reading at the airport station—the most reliable continuous measurement point for central London—rather than estimates from other locations or time-averaged figures.

August temperatures in London have historically ranged between 20°C and 32°C over the past two decades, with the 2022 heatwave pushing readings to 40°C. The 16th falls mid-month when summer patterns typically stabilise; recent years show August averages clustering around 24–26°C for daily highs. The 0% probability suggests traders either expect an outcome outside the available range options or that deposit friction and withdrawal delays via Klarna or SEPA transfers have suppressed early liquidity. Book depth typically builds as settlement approaches, particularly when traders can verify funding timelines and fee structures for their preferred on-ramp.

Weather forecasting accuracy for specific dates eighteen months ahead remains limited; the Met Office and European models provide only directional guidance at this distance. Traders should monitor late July 2026 seasonal outlooks and any atmospheric pattern shifts signalled by June forecasts. The resolution source's explicit reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—not summary highs—means traders must verify the exact data methodology before committing capital, particularly given potential discrepancies between observation points that could affect settlement across temperature bands.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in London on August 16? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?

Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.

What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?

UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.

How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?

Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).