Highest temperature in London on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

London’s highest temperature on 1 August will be set by the afternoon peak at London City Airport, so the key question is whether the day gets warm enough to push above the market’s current expected band. London’s early-August climate is usually warm rather than extreme, with typical 1 August temperatures in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius and a long-run August average high around 23°C to 24°C.[1][3]

A 0% YES probability is hard to reconcile with the seasonal baseline if the market is still live before settlement, because the crowd is effectively pricing in an outcome that should be impossible only if the tape has already moved past the relevant observation or if the wrong settlement window is being read. Historical London August extremes show that 30°C-plus days do occur, including 33°C on 1 August 2013 and 36°C-plus heat elsewhere in the month, but those are outliers rather than the norm.[4][6][9] For reading current pricing, the practical comparison is with ordinary summer maxima, not record heat; the more relevant zone is mid-20s Celsius, where small revisions can shift the winning bracket.[2][3]

For traders, the main catalysts are not earnings-style announcements but the funding rails that determine whether fresh capital can get in quickly enough to move the book. On this venue, that means checking whether deposits via Klarna, SEPA, or USDC are settled and available before the London afternoon warm-up, since on-ramp friction can slow participation and leave the market thinner than the headline interest suggests. Weather-wise, the decisive inputs are the latest Met Office guidance, cloud cover, wind and any late-day convective risk; for a station-specific high, even modest forecast changes can matter if the day is tracking near the boundary between two temperature ranges.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in London on August 1? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.