Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 34°C | 90% |
| 35°C | 9% |
| 36°C or higher | 1% |
| 26°C or below | 0% |
| 27°C | 0% |
| 28°C | 0% |
| 29°C | 0% |
| 30°C | 0% |
| 31°C | 0% |
| 32°C | 0% |
| 33°C | 0% |
Market context
Kuala Lumpur’s highest temperature on 10 August will be set by the day’s actual peak reading at Kuala Lumpur Intl Airport, not by a summary widget, so intraday heat spikes matter more than the headline forecast. The local forecast from Malaysia’s meteorological department points to no rain and a maximum of 33°C for Kuala Lumpur, while independent forecast pages cluster around the low 90s Fahrenheit, roughly 33°C, with some room for a 34°C print if cloud breaks and late-morning heating is stronger than expected.[10][18][20]
That framing fits Kuala Lumpur’s August climate, where typical highs are around 30–31°C and the monthly average maximum is broadly in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, so a 33°C outcome is more consistent with a warm day than an outlier.[5][9][15] Recent history also shows the city can move a degree or two above the average on individual August days, with historical daily highs in the low to mid-30s Celsius appearing regularly in comparable records.[6][8] A crowd price of 0% for YES looks detached from that baseline unless traders are effectively assuming an interruption to normal reporting or a much cooler day than current forecasts imply.
For book depth, the main catalyst is whether deposits and withdrawals stay frictionless enough for money to reach the market quickly: Klarna cards and bank transfers can improve on-ramp conversion, SEPA makes euro funding cheaper but slower than card rails, and USDC is usually the fastest route when traders want to add risk around the forecast update cycle. The practical watchlist is the morning observation window, any late changes to the official forecast, and whether thunderstorms develop after sunrise, because those are the conditions most likely to cap the day’s maximum below 33°C or push it into the 34°C band.
Methodology
This page compares Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 10? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
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