Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Istanbul Airport will determine the settlement of a weather prediction market, with NOAA data serving as the definitive resolution source. The crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the event conditions are either impossible under the market’s specific range definitions or that the implied temperature threshold is unattainable given current atmospheric patterns.

Historical July data for Istanbul shows daytime maximums averaging 27°C, with long-term records rarely falling below 24°C or exceeding 31°C[3][4]. Recent comparable markets, such as the July 7 Istanbul temperature event, resolved at 27°C with 100% certainty, while the July 8 market shows significant uncertainty around 29°C[2][9]. The 0% YES probability likely reflects a mismatch between the market’s defined temperature range and the statistically probable 25–27°C band, where the current frontrunner outcome sits at 25°C with 41–48% probability[1].

Traders should monitor NOAA’s daily time-series updates for LTFM (Istanbul Airport) as the primary dependency, alongside any sudden shifts in regional heatwave forecasts from AccuWeather or climate agencies[6]. A key catalyst will be the publication of the first data point for 9 July, which the market cannot resolve until released. Payment friction via Klarna on-ramps and SEPA withdrawal rails directly influences book depth, as funding flows from these rails determine liquidity for temperature-range bets. Recent volatility in the July 8 market underscores how forecast uncertainty can keep probabilities tightly contested across wide degree ranges[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 9? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).