Highest temperature in Houston on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 July 2026, the William P. Hobby Airport in Houston will record its peak daily temperature in degrees Fahrenheit, a single data point that determines the outcome of this weather prediction market. The settlement hinges on the highest reading captured at this specific station, sourced from Wunderground’s historical daily records, with the window closing at noon UTC on the settlement date.

Historically, mid-July in Houston sees highs routinely exceeding 90°F, often climbing into the 95–100°F range, making a 0% crowd-implied probability for the current YES range statistically anomalous unless that range is implausibly low. Comparable cases from 2023 and 2024 show consistent heatwaves during this period, with NOAA data confirming average maximums near 96°F, suggesting the market’s current pricing may reflect a narrow or misaligned resolution bracket rather than genuine meteorological doubt.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for Houston as it approaches the settlement date, alongside any sudden shifts in regional humidity or cloud cover that could suppress peak temperatures. A recent alert from the Houston Chronicle noted rising heat indices across the Gulf Coast in early July, reinforcing the likelihood of extreme temperatures [1]. The market’s book depth will ultimately depend on how quickly depositors can access funds via Klarna or SEPA rails, as on-ramp friction directly influences the speed of capital entry and the resulting liquidity available to correct mispriced probabilities.

[1] Houston Chronicle, "Heat indices rise across Gulf Coast as July begins," July 2, 2026.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Houston on July 15? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.