Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's peak temperature in Celsius, and this market resolves based on which range that reading falls into. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must wait for the Observatory's finalised daily extract before any outcome becomes official. Liquidity in weather markets often depends on deposit availability and withdrawal speed; traders holding USDC or maintaining active SEPA rails can move capital more fluidly between positions as forecasts shift, whilst those relying on Klarna or slower on-ramps may find themselves locked into early positions during volatile prediction windows.

Hong Kong's May temperatures historically cluster between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during early heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either thin initial liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve. Book depth in weather markets typically builds as the event date approaches and deposit friction decreases; traders with pre-funded accounts tend to enter positions 7–10 days prior, creating the volume needed to shift implied odds away from extreme edges.

The key catalyst is the Hong Kong Observatory's daily weather bulletin, published each evening. Traders should monitor the 10-day forecast from mid-May onwards; any official alerts for heat stress or unusual atmospheric conditions will shift positioning. Recent patterns show May heat waves correlating with subtropical ridge positioning over southern China, a factor meteorologists flag in their monthly outlooks. Settlement depends entirely on the Observatory's published data—no alternative sources or adjustments apply.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.