Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 23?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 23 May 2026 will be recorded by the Observatory and published in its official Daily Extract once the month's data is finalised. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must commit capital before the Observatory's final reading is confirmed. This timing constraint—where resolution depends on a government meteorological agency's data release schedule rather than real-time observation—creates liquidity friction typical of weather markets with delayed settlement sources.

Historical May temperatures in Hong Kong cluster around 28–32°C for daily highs, with extremes reaching 34–35°C during early heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either thin order books or genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will trade. Weather markets on Polymarket typically see deposit friction from UK traders using Klarna's staggered payment rails; May forecasting requires capital committed months ahead, which depresses early-season participation compared to markets settling within weeks. SEPA transfers and USDC on-ramps remain the primary funding paths for European traders, though Klarna's three-tranche payment option reduces initial friction for smaller positions.

The Hong Kong Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries with a lag of several weeks, creating a known dependency point where resolution cannot occur until data verification completes. Traders should monitor the Observatory's publication calendar and any tropical system forecasts for late May 2026, as typhoon activity would shift temperature distributions materially. Depth in this market will likely remain constrained until late April, when seasonal forecasts narrow and traders' deposit decisions align with nearer-term settlement certainty.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.