Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 17?

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Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 17 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract climate database. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, though the official temperature reading may not be finalised until the Observatory publishes its daily summary, which typically occurs within 24 hours of the observation period ending. This market resolves to a temperature range in degrees Celsius to one decimal place, sourced directly from the Observatory's "Absolute Daily Max" field.

June in Hong Kong sits within the pre-monsoon season, when temperatures typically range between 28–33°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. Historical data from the Observatory shows that extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 36°C—occur roughly once per decade in mid-June. The current crowd probability of 0% suggests traders are pricing in a specific temperature threshold as unlikely; without knowing which range this market covers, the baseline expectation is that June 17 will fall within normal seasonal bounds rather than triggering an outlier event.

Traders monitoring this market should watch the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any heat advisories issued in the week preceding 17 June. El Niño or La Niña conditions, tracked by the Japan Meteorological Agency and published monthly, influence regional temperature patterns. Deposit friction remains material for UK traders: Klarna's payment rails and SEPA transfers typically settle within 1–2 business days, whilst USDC on-ramps via exchanges add settlement variability. Book depth will depend on whether competing platforms offer similar weather derivatives, as fragmented liquidity across payment methods reduces effective trading depth.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.