Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 16?

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Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 16 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract dataset. The settlement hinges on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure in degrees Celsius to one decimal place, with resolution occurring only after the Observatory finalises and publishes the data for that date.

June temperatures in Hong Kong cluster between 28–32°C, though the city's subtropical climate produces considerable year-to-year variance. Historical records show daily maxima ranging from 26°C to 35°C during mid-June; the 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific narrow band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the full temperature spectrum. Comparable June markets on Polymarket have typically seen deeper order books once deposit friction eases—traders using Klarna's staggered payment rails or direct SEPA transfers tend to commit larger positions once funding clears, which shifts probability distributions away from edge cases.

The key dependency is the Observatory's publication schedule. Data becomes available within 24–48 hours of the measurement date, but formal release into the Daily Extract can lag by several days during peak season when processing queues lengthen. Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's website directly rather than relying on third-party weather aggregators, as rounding or data transcription errors occasionally create discrepancies. Withdrawal mechanics matter here: traders exiting positions after resolution should confirm whether their chosen rail (USDC on-chain, SEPA bank transfer, or Klarna refund) processes within the settlement window, as delayed withdrawals can lock capital across multiple markets.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.