Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 14 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract climate data. The settlement hinges on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure in degrees Celsius to one decimal place, with the window closing at midday UTC on that date. This is a straightforward meteorological measurement with no ambiguity in source or methodology—the Observatory has maintained consistent temperature recording protocols for decades.

June in Hong Kong sits at the threshold of the summer monsoon season, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 29°C and 34°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal liquidity in this particular contract. Comparable June days show clustering around 31–32°C, though outlier heat events pushing toward 35°C occur roughly once per decade during early-season heat waves. The absence of trading activity may reflect the narrow resolution window and the technical requirement that data must be finalised before settlement can occur.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during early June, as these systems significantly influence local temperatures. Recent years have seen increasing volatility in early-summer heat patterns across the region. Deposit and withdrawal flows on prediction market platforms typically accelerate when weather markets offer clear catalysts—in this case, the specific date provides a hard deadline, though traders must account for the lag between the actual weather event and official data publication before funds can be accessed via SEPA, USDC or alternative rails.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.