Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 13 June 2026, Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature will be recorded by the Observatory and published in its official Daily Extract. The market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single data point, measured to one decimal place in Celsius. Settlement occurs after the Observatory finalises its records, typically within days of the observation date. Traders depositing via Klarna or SEPA transfers will need to ensure funds clear before the window closes at midday UTC on the resolution date itself, though the actual temperature reading won't be known until publication follows.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster between 28°C and 34°C based on thirty-year normals, with extreme highs occasionally reaching 36°C during early-summer heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either shallow liquidity in this particular band or confidence that the range falls outside current market options. Historical volatility in early June is modest compared to August peaks, making temperature prediction more tractable than late-summer markets where monsoon systems introduce sharper swings. Comparable single-day temperature markets in tropical regions typically see tighter clustering around seasonal means when atmospheric conditions remain stable.

The Hong Kong Observatory publishes forecasts five to seven days ahead, with updates every six hours during the approach to 13 June. Traders should monitor the Observatory's official website for trend signals in late May and early June, particularly any alerts regarding heat advisories or unusual pressure systems. Withdrawal rails via USDC or bank transfers may experience weekend delays if settlement data publishes on a Friday or Saturday, so traders planning exits should factor in processing times when managing their positions.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.