Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 12 June 2026 will be recorded by the Observatory and published in its Daily Extract dataset. The settlement hinges on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure in degrees Celsius to one decimal place, with resolution delayed until the Observatory finalises and publishes the data. This is a straightforward meteorological measurement with no discretionary interpretation.

June in Hong Kong typically sits within the early monsoon season, with daily highs ranging between 29–33°C depending on weather systems and humidity patterns. Historical data from the Observatory shows that extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 35°C—occur occasionally but remain statistically uncommon for this calendar date. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a low-liquidity market awaiting deposit inflows to build book depth. Early-season markets often see minimal activity until payment rails activate; traders using Klarna, SEPA transfers, or USDC on-ramps typically enter positions once funding friction drops.

The key catalyst is the release of extended-range weather forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional meteorological bodies in late May 2026. Traders should monitor advisories for tropical cyclone activity, which can drive anomalous temperature patterns, and track the strength of the southwest monsoon. Market depth will likely increase as June approaches and deposit options become more accessible to international traders, particularly those using streamlined payment methods that reduce settlement friction.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.