Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's peak temperature on 11 June 2026 will be measured and recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory, with settlement determined by the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in their Daily Extract dataset. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must commit capital before the Observatory publishes final readings, which typically occur within 24 hours of the observation period ending.

Historical June temperatures in Hong Kong cluster between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves or pre-monsoon conditions. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or minimal liquidity depth in this particular contract. Comparable weather markets on prediction platforms typically see tighter probability distributions as settlement approaches, particularly when tied to official meteorological data with minimal measurement variance. The Hong Kong Observatory's published records show June highs rarely exceed 35°C, establishing a practical ceiling for extreme outcomes.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Meteorological Society's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity tracking towards the region in early June, both of which could shift temperature trajectories. Deposit friction and withdrawal rails matter here: traders using SEPA transfers or Klarna's payment infrastructure should account for settlement timing, as fund availability post-resolution depends on book depth and platform processing speeds. Shallow liquidity in niche weather markets can delay withdrawals even after resolution, making entry and exit costs material considerations alongside the underlying temperature forecast.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.