Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 10?

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Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 10 June 2026 will be recorded by the Observatory and published in its Daily Extract dataset. The settlement hinges on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. June sits within Hong Kong's pre-monsoon season, when afternoon highs typically range between 29–33°C, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve, not absence of trading interest; shallow liquidity often accompanies weather markets with dispersed outcome ranges rather than binary yes-no structures.

Historical June data from the Observatory shows considerable year-to-year variance. The 30-year average daily maximum for early June hovers near 31°C, but individual years have recorded highs between 26°C and 36°C depending on monsoon timing and tropical systems. Recent seasons (2023–2025) experienced typical warm-season patterns without extreme outliers, providing a baseline for assessing probability distributions across temperature bands. Traders comparing this market to similar Hong Kong weather contracts will note that June temperatures rarely breach 37°C, making upper-range outcomes structurally less likely than mid-range settlements.

Deposit friction and withdrawal rails matter for market depth here. Klarna's deferred payment option lowers entry barriers for traders building positions across multiple weather outcomes, whilst SEPA transfers and USDC on-ramps enable efficient capital allocation for European participants. Book depth typically thickens as settlement approaches and real-time weather forecasts narrow outcome ranges; traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's 10-day outlook from early June and track any tropical cyclone warnings that could suppress temperatures or trigger volatility across bands.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.