Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 1?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 1 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, measured to one decimal place and published in the Observatory's official Daily Extract once the meteorological data is finalised.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are historically stable within a narrow band. The territory's climate data shows June daily maxima typically range between 29–32°C, with extreme outliers rare. The 0% crowd probability reflects the absence of any specific temperature threshold being priced; traders are instead selecting which range bracket will capture the actual reading. Historical volatility in June daily maxima is modest—weather patterns are dominated by the onset of the southwest monsoon, which moderates extreme heat spikes that occur in May or July. Comparable June dates from the past decade show consistent clustering around 30–31°C, making very high or very low outcomes statistically unlikely.

The settlement window closes on 1 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC, but the market cannot resolve until the Hong Kong Observatory publishes its Daily Extract with verified data—typically within 48 hours of the observation date. Traders depositing via Klarna or SEPA transfers should account for standard clearing times before market close. Withdrawal rails including USDC settlement may offer faster liquidity access once the Observatory data is published and the market resolves, reducing friction for traders seeking to redeploy capital across other weather or seasonal markets.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.