Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 July 2026, Hong Kong will record its daily maximum temperature, which the Hong Kong Observatory will publish in its official climate data. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single highest reading, measured to one decimal place in Celsius. Settlement occurs after the Observatory finalises its daily extract, typically within days of the observation date. The 0% crowd probability suggests either insufficient liquidity to establish a baseline or genuine uncertainty about which temperature bracket will be hit.

Hong Kong's July temperatures cluster tightly around historical norms. The Observatory's records show July daily maxima typically range between 31°C and 34°C, with extreme readings above 35°C occurring roughly once per decade during particularly intense heat waves. The 2015 heat wave pushed readings to 36.1°C; more recently, July 2023 saw maxima consistently in the 32–34°C band. Current market depth likely reflects the challenge of pricing a weather event nine months ahead without established seasonal forecasts, making early positions relatively illiquid.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal outlooks, released quarterly, which will sharpen probability distributions as July 2026 approaches. El Niño or La Niña conditions announced by the World Meteorological Organisation typically influence East Asian summer temperatures. Deposit friction via Klarna or SEPA transfers may suppress early trading volume; book depth usually improves within 60–90 days of settlement as real-time weather models become actionable and withdrawal confidence increases. USDC on-ramps will be critical for traders seeking to exit positions quickly once July forecasts solidify.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 21? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).