Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the absolute daily maximum temperature in degrees Celsius, which will determine the outcome of a prediction market resolving to a specific temperature range. The current crowd-implied probability for the highest temperature hitting a particular threshold is 0% YES, suggesting traders see little chance of an extreme heat spike beyond the expected summer baseline.

Historical data frames this low probability: July in Hong Kong has consistently been hot, with the highest monthly mean maximum temperature reaching 32.9°C in 2007[2], and recent years showing record-breaking heat, such as 36.1°C recorded in 2024[3]. However, the 2025 annual maximum was only 27.1°C[5], indicating variability. The 0% probability likely reflects that traders expect temperatures to stay within the typical 28–34°C range, not the extreme outliers seen in past record years.

Traders should monitor upcoming weather announcements from the Hong Kong Observatory, particularly the Daily Extract data release scheduled for early July, which will finalise the absolute daily max figure[7]. A recent heatwave in Hong Kong, where temperatures soared past 34°C and triggered hail warnings, underscores the volatility traders must watch[4]. Funding flows into the market, driven by deposit fees and withdrawal rails like SEPA and USDC, will influence book depth as these dependencies unfold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.