Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical climatology for Guangzhou in July shows daily highs averaging around 33°C (91°F), rarely dipping below 30°C (85°F) or exceeding 39°C (102°F) [1][2]. The hottest July in recent records saw temperatures reach 39°C, while typical peak ranges cluster between 34°C and 37°C [4][9]. Given this data, a 0% probability for hitting 36°C appears inconsistent with historical frequency, suggesting the book may be mispriced relative to comparable seasonal patterns.

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground and any sudden shifts in monsoon activity or thunderstorm coverage, which can suppress peak temperatures [3][7]. Recent reports confirm China experienced its hottest July on record since 1961, indicating a potential upward bias in temperature forecasts for 2026 [5]. As funding flows into prediction markets often correlate with payment friction reductions—such as Klarna deposits or SEPA withdrawals—increased liquidity from smoother on-ramps could deepen the book and correct the current 0% mispricing. Watch for announcements on weather station recalibrations or dependencies on local meteorological schedules that might alter resolution timing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.