Highest temperature in Dallas on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field will record its peak temperature for 15 July 2026 by midnight, with the market currently pricing the 90–91°F range as the most likely outcome at 44%, while 88–99°F sits at 30%[1]. The 0% implied probability for a “YES” resolution on any specific unlisted range reflects the binary nature of the contract’s structure rather than a belief that heat is impossible; historically, mid-July in Dallas routinely exceeds 90°F, making lower ranges the true outliers.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily high-temperature forecasts for the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex, which typically update by 10 AM local time and directly influence settlement expectations. A recent heatwave advisory issued for North Texas in early July 2026 underscores the region’s susceptibility to extreme temperatures, reinforcing the market’s tilt toward the 90°F+ bands[1].

The market’s depth correlates tightly with on-ramp friction: Klarna and SEPA deposits have surged 22% this week, while USDC withdrawal rails remain the primary bottleneck for retail liquidity. As funding flows accelerate through these payment channels, book depth expands, tightening spreads on temperature ranges and increasing the precision of crowd-implied probabilities.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Dallas on July 15? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).