Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 98-99°F | 100% |
| 93°F or below | 0% |
| 94-95°F | 0% |
| 96-97°F | 0% |
| 100-101°F | 0% |
| 102-103°F | 0% |
| 104-105°F | 0% |
| 106-107°F | 0% |
| 108-109°F | 0% |
| 110-111°F | 0% |
| 112°F or higher | 0% |
Market context
Dallas’ highest temperature is the day’s peak reading at Dallas Love Field, and the market settles on the precise Fahrenheit band that contains that value, using Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table rather than any headline high-and-low summary. That matters because the resolution source is granular, time-stamped observation data, so late-day updates or corrections can move the final print even after traders have locked in a view.
The current 0% Yes price is best read against a market that is usually dominated by the funding rails and not just the weather call. When deposits are easy and cheap through Klarna, SEPA, or USDC, books tend to deepen quickly; when on-ramp friction is higher, liquidity can thin and prices can lag the underlying forecast. In a late-summer Dallas setting, comparable markets have typically clustered around the low- to upper-90s Fahrenheit, and official climate data from the National Weather Service show that 97°F is the normal maximum for 9 August at Dallas/Fort Worth, with 100°F being a plausible warm-day outcome in the broader August range.[4][11]
The main catalysts are the observed afternoon temperature profile at Love Field and any Weather Underground revisions before the next day’s first datapoint is published, because the market explicitly allows updates until that cut-off.[1][9] Traders should also watch the National Weather Service’s local forecast and any heat-advisory style messaging, since those can shift expectations for the daily high before settlement. On the funding side, any change in withdrawal speed or deposit availability on the platform can affect how quickly new money reaches the book, which is often more relevant to short-dated weather markets than the forecast itself.[5][9]
Methodology
This page compares Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
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