Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data confirms Chongqing’s late-June averages cluster well above 30°C, with peaks frequently reaching 31–32°C and extreme days hitting 43°C[1][3]. Since the hot season spans from 20 June to 9 September, with daily highs consistently above 85°F, a 0% YES probability for lower temperature ranges contradicts decades of climatic patterns[1][6]. Recent heatwaves in China’s southwest have pushed temperatures to 44°C, reinforcing that low-temperature outcomes are exceptionally rare in this window[7][8].

Traders should monitor official meteorological bulletins and real-time Wunderground feeds for the Jiangbei station, as cloud cover or monsoon shifts could briefly suppress peaks[4]. A recent Reuters report on August 2025 heatwaves highlights how rapidly temperatures can surge beyond 40°C, suggesting volatility remains high even in early summer[7]. Funding flows into prediction books on this market correlate with deposit friction via Klarna and SEPA rails; as payment on-ramps ease, book depth expands, reflecting stronger trader confidence in high-temperature outcomes. Withdrawal rails like USDC further influence liquidity, tying market traction directly to payment infrastructure efficiency rather than weather speculation alone.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.