Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 31 July 2026, measured in Celsius and taken from the Wunderground daily history page for that station. Chengdu is a hot, humid inland city in July, with typical daytime highs around 31–35°C and occasional extreme maxima close to 39°C, so a 0% YES price implies the market is currently discounting the upper end of the local summer range rather than ordinary July heat.[2][4][16][17]

That sort of pricing is often best read against the payment funnel as much as the weather itself: prediction markets with easy on-ramps, low card friction, and fast settlement rails tend to attract more small tickets, which can thicken the book when a familiar seasonal event starts to look plausible. Klarna-style buy-now-pay-later deposits and SEPA transfers reduce the first-step cost for European users, while USDC withdrawal options can keep balances circulating instead of leaving the venue after one trade; in practice, those rails matter because depth usually follows fresh deposits, not just conviction. Historical July profiles for Chengdu show average highs near 31°C, but record highs materially above that, so traders usually reprice only when forecasts shift towards a persistent heat surge rather than a single warm afternoon.[6][9][10][12]

For catalysts, the main driver is the short-range forecast path into 31 July, especially whether a heat ridge builds over Sichuan or rain and cloud suppress the afternoon peak. Traders typically watch local forecast updates, airport observations, and any shift in the daily maximum forecast from the low 30s into the mid- or upper-30s; even a one-day change in cloud cover or precipitation timing can move the realised maximum enough to matter for range-based settlement. At 10:50 UTC on the settlement day, the market is already inside the resolution window, so the remaining depth will mostly reflect late-breaking forecast and observation flow rather than long-horizon weather expectations.[15][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 31? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.