Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s highest temperature is usually determined by late-afternoon heating, but July also sits inside the city’s wet, humid summer pattern, which can cap extremes when cloud and showers build early. July norms for Chengdu point to average highs around 30°C with humidity near 80%, while shorter-range forecasts around this period have still been showing low-to-mid 30s Celsius potential rather than anything near a cool day.[3][4][2]

A **0% YES** price implies the market is treating the relevant temperature band as effectively unreachable, which is unusual unless the chosen range is far above the seasonal distribution or the book is extremely thin. Comparable Chengdu July conditions support reading the contract as a weather outcome driven by a narrow daily high rather than the broader monthly average, so the key reference point is the airport station’s single-day maximum rather than citywide comfort levels.[3] In markets like this, depth often tracks who can get money on-chain or into the venue quickly; friction on deposits, withdrawal rails and payment routes can matter more than the forecast itself. If funding is easiest through card-style on-ramps or SEPA-style transfers, liquidity tends to arrive faster than when traders must bridge into USDC first, and that affects how quickly the market can reprice.

The main catalysts are the same items forecasters watch on any summer China temperature contract: cloud cover, rainfall timing, and whether convection clears before the afternoon peak. Short-horizon forecasts from mainstream weather services show ongoing rain chances and humidity for Chengdu, which matters because a wet morning can suppress the day’s maximum even if sunshine appears later.[4][2] Traders will also watch the weather station’s official daily high as it develops through the afternoon, since the contract resolves to the highest recorded temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station on the day rather than a projected high.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.