Highest temperature in Beijing on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical data from Wunderground. Late May sits in Beijing's late spring period, when daytime highs typically range between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings into the mid-30s. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature swing before final resolution.

Historical May temperatures at Beijing Capital show considerable year-to-year variance. In May 2023, the highest daily maximum reached 31.5°C; in May 2022, it peaked at 33.8°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the full range. Traders depositing via Klarna or SEPA rails should note that book depth often correlates with funding velocity—markets with shallow order books typically see wider spreads, making entry and exit costs material for smaller positions.

Weather forecasts for late May 2026 remain unavailable at present, but seasonal patterns and any emerging atmospheric anomalies (monsoon onset timing, high-pressure systems) will drive volatility as the date approaches. China's meteorological service typically publishes extended forecasts 10–14 days ahead. Withdrawal friction via USDC or traditional payment rails can affect position sizing decisions; traders should verify their preferred settlement method before committing capital, as liquidity events often cluster around resolution windows when traders attempt simultaneous exits.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.