Highest temperature in Beijing on June 16?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 16 June 2026, Beijing's highest temperature will be recorded at Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. June in Beijing typically sees daily highs between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical archive, which captures intraday extremes across all hours, making afternoon peaks the primary driver of resolution outcomes.

Beijing's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer monsoon influence. Historical precedent from June 2020–2025 shows considerable year-to-year variance: the city recorded 39.4°C in June 2022 during an exceptional heat event, whilst cooler Junes have peaked near 30°C. Current crowd pricing at 0% YES suggests traders are pricing in either a narrow range expectation or insufficient liquidity depth to establish meaningful odds. Deposit friction via Klarna and SEPA rails has historically compressed book depth on weather markets with lower trading volumes, meaning early position-takers face wider spreads and slower order fills.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early June and track any official heat-wave alerts issued by Beijing authorities. El Niño or La Niña conditions in early 2026 will shape seasonal temperature patterns; recent NOAA updates on Pacific oscillations provide leading indicators. Withdrawal timelines matter here—SEPA settlements typically clear within 2–3 business days post-resolution, whilst USDC redemptions settle immediately, creating arbitrage opportunities for traders managing cash-out timing around the 12:00 UTC settlement window.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.