Highest temperature in Beijing on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's summer heat peaks in late July, with daily maxima typically ranging between 28–35°C at the Capital International Airport station. The settlement window closes at midday on 28 July 2026, meaning the market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded from midnight through noon that day. Historical data from Wunderground shows that Beijing regularly experiences temperatures above 32°C during this period, though extreme heat waves pushing above 38°C occur roughly once every three to five years.

The 0% crowd probability reflects either low market participation or genuine uncertainty about which specific temperature band will be hit. Comparable July days from the past decade show clustering around 30–34°C ranges, with outlier events (such as the 2020 heatwave reaching 38.3°C) driving occasional spikes into higher brackets. Current atmospheric patterns and seasonal forecasts from China's meteorological authority will tighten expectations as the settlement date approaches, but early-season volatility in these markets often stems from thin liquidity rather than fundamental disagreement on likely outcomes.

Traders monitoring this market should track updates from China's National Meteorological Centre and any regional heat advisories issued in early July 2026. Payment friction remains material for UK-based participants: Klarna deposits typically settle within hours, whilst SEPA transfers and USDC on-ramps may introduce delays that affect position-entry timing. Book depth will likely improve as the date nears, reducing slippage on larger stakes and making withdrawal via preferred rails (Klarna cashback, direct SEPA) more viable for closing positions.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Beijing on July 28? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.