Highest temperature in Beijing on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing is entering its peak summer heatwave, with July consistently delivering the city’s highest daily temperatures. Historical data shows July highs typically reach 32–37°C, with extreme spikes to 40°C recorded in 2023 and an all-time record of 41.9°C in 1999[1][2]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific range suggests traders expect the temperature to fall outside the market’s defined brackets, likely due to uncertainty over whether July 11, 2026, will match recent extremes or remain near the seasonal average of 32°C[3][5].

Traders should monitor China’s National Meteorological Centre heatwave alerts and Wunderground’s real-time updates for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, the official resolution source[2]. Recent reports confirm China experienced its hottest month in recent history in July 2024, with averages eclipsing 2017 records, indicating a trend toward more frequent extreme heat events that could push July 11 temperatures above 38°C[10]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 11 July 2026, so any sudden temperature spikes before this deadline will directly impact resolution.

Market depth correlates with funding flows via Klarna and SEPA on-ramps; friction in depositing or withdrawal rails can suppress liquidity, especially as traders await definitive heatwave announcements. USDC withdrawals remain a key rail for international participants, and any delays here could reduce book depth during critical temperature updates. The market’s traction hinges on whether traders can access funds quickly to position before the 12:00 UTC deadline, making payment infrastructure reliability a silent catalyst for price movement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Beijing on July 11? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).