Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 32°C | 99% |
| 33°C | 2% |
| 28°C or below | 0% |
| 29°C | 0% |
| 30°C | 0% |
| 31°C | 0% |
| 34°C | 0% |
| 35°C | 0% |
| 36°C | 0% |
| 37°C | 0% |
| 38°C or higher | 0% |
Market context
Beijing’s hottest reading on 10 August will be set by the day’s peak at Beijing Capital International Airport, so the settlement is driven by the intraday high rather than any summary display. August is typically one of the warmer months in Beijing, with average daytime highs around 31°C and record highs in the mid-to-high 30s, which means the relevant range is usually determined by how far the afternoon warms after the morning low rather than by an extreme one-off spike.[7][19][10]
The current 0% YES print sits well below the climatological baseline. Historical August data for Beijing shows typical highs around 30–31°C, while 10 August specifically has averaged roughly 33.7°C in recent annual weather tables and has reached the low-to-mid 30s often enough that a single hot day is not unusual.[15][4][7] For market reading, that makes the book depth more dependent on fresh funding and deposit convenience than on any novel weather edge: when on-ramp friction is low and users can move in via Klarna, SEPA or USDC, liquidity tends to thicken quickly around a familiar temperature band.
The main catalysts are the observed daily temperature path and any short-term forecast updates before settlement, especially if Beijing is under a heat signal or cloud/rain suppresses the afternoon maximum. The market resolves off the Weather Underground Daily Observations table, not the summary high/low box, so traders should watch for the station’s hourly progression and any late-day adjustment in the recorded maximum before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes.[8][13]
Methodology
This page compares Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
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