Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol will record its peak temperature for 16 July 2026, with the market resolving to the specific Celsius range containing that daily maximum. Historical data for mid-July in the Netherlands typically shows highs between 22°C and 26°C, making the current 0% crowd-implied probability for a "YES" outcome on any specific range appear inconsistent with the 75% probability assigned to 24°C as the frontrunner [1]. This divergence suggests the market is pricing a specific range rather than a binary event, or the "YES" label refers to an outlier condition not aligned with the seasonal average.

Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground history feed for the Schiphol station, as settlement relies exclusively on the highest temperature recorded at all times on that day [1]. The primary catalyst is the release of the official daily summary from the weather service, which will confirm the exact figure against the predefined ranges. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 16 July 2026, liquidity will likely concentrate as the day progresses, driven by funding flows from users depositing via Klarna or SEPA to capitalise on the narrowing spread between the 24°C and 25°C outcomes [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.